Politics
Rubio says a U.S.-India trade deal is 99% done. Russian oil is the 1%
On a two-day visit to New Delhi, the secretary of state tied the trade talks to a 60-day waiver on Russian-oil tariffs. No deal was signed.
“Ninety-nine percent” is a number diplomats love, because it sounds like a finish line and commits you to nothing. Marco Rubio used it in New Delhi this week to describe a U.S.-India trade deal that, as of his visit, still hadn’t been signed.
The secretary of state arrived in India on Tuesday, Oct. 20, for a two-day visit with a trade agreement and Russian oil at the top of the agenda, Reuters reported via U.S. News & World Report. “I would say we’re about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement,” Rubio said, according to the same report, putting progress at 99% and saying the remaining differences were largely about specific words and phrases.
The waiver before the visit
The trip came days after President Donald Trump granted a temporary waiver from potential punitive tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, Reuters reported, removing an immediate obstacle to a deal with India, one of the biggest of those buyers.
Rubio connected the two openly. He said the push to finalize a trade deal was a factor in the decision to waive the tariffs, and that the administration was entering a 60-day review period to decide which new tariffs, if any, to impose, according to Reuters. That’s an unusually direct admission that a trade deal and a sanctions policy are being negotiated as one package.
The stakes are written into law. Under legislation Trump signed in September, the administration can impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian oil, a group that would include India, Reuters reported.
Who benefits from the delay
Follow the oil and the incentives line up. India has bought large amounts of discounted Russian crude since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has kept its energy costs down. Washington wants that flow reduced, because oil revenue funds Russia’s war. A 60-day window gives India time to keep buying while the deal gets finished, and gives the U.S. a deadline to hold over the talks.
Rubio, for his part, said India has voluntarily diversified its energy supply but still gets a substantial amount from Russia, Reuters reported. Outlook India reported him saying the tariffs were not meant to punish India.
The Venezuela angle
The visit had a second energy thread. Rubio’s schedule included meetings with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and with Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, Reuters reported. Washington is pushing for energy cooperation that could see Reliance refine more Venezuelan crude, according to the same report and PRESS Insider.
That’s a revealing detail. The U.S. isn’t just asking India to stop buying Russian oil. It’s helping steer India toward a replacement, and a secretary of state sitting down with one of the world’s richest men to talk refinery feedstock shows how much of foreign policy now runs through private energy companies.
The view from the price tag
For ordinary Indians, the oil question is a fuel-price question. Cheap Russian crude has helped keep costs at the pump and in power plants lower than they might otherwise have been. Any deal that pushes India away from that supply has to replace it with something, and replacements usually cost more.
For American consumers, the trade deal matters in the other direction: what Indian goods cost when they arrive in U.S. stores, and whether American exporters get better access to one of the world’s fastest-growing big economies. Neither side of that equation has been spelled out publicly, because the deal’s text hasn’t been released.
What 99% doesn’t mean
No final agreement or signing date had been announced during the visit, according to Reuters. That last 1% is where trade deals often get stuck. “Specific words and phrases” can mean anything from a translation detail to a fight over which industries get protected.
There’s also the question of leverage. A waiver that can be revoked in 60 days is a deadline, and deadlines cut both ways. India can sign quickly and lock in relief, or wait to see whether Washington really wants to impose 100% tariffs on a partner it’s courting as a counterweight to China.
The partnership both sides need
Despite the friction, both governments have reasons to close. The U.S. sees India as a key partner in Asia, and India wants access to American markets, technology and investment. The oil dispute is real, but it sits inside a relationship both sides describe as strategic.
Rubio left New Delhi with a number, not a signature. Whether “99%” becomes 100% may depend less on the wording of the trade text than on how many barrels of Russian oil keep arriving at Indian ports over the next 60 days.
Sources
- Reuters via U.S. News: Rubio kicks off India visit with trade deal, Russian oil on agenda
- Outlook India: Rubio says U.S. tariffs are not meant to punish India
- PRESS Insider: trade deal and Venezuelan oil at center of visit
